Monday, April 21, 2008

If I Were... Kevin McHale

First off, I would step back and look at what I've done in my almost 13 years of being Vice President of Basketball Operations of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

DRAFT HISTORY:
  • My first draft produced Kevin Garnett, who grew into something that was almost bigger than the franchise itself. After a disappointing run, there was no choice but to let him go.
  • The 1996 draft produced Stephon Marbury, but only through a trade with the Bucks. In hindsight, I would have been better off keeping Ray Allen. At the time though, it looked like the right deal.
  • The 1997 draft - the first draft after our initial playoff appearance - netted Paul Grant. He lasted a total of 16 career games scoring 29 points before being out of the league. We were able to rid ourselves of him in the Marbury trade.
  • The 1998 draft was more of the same - a low-skill big man. Of course Rasho Nesterovic is still in the league and contributing to a playoff team in Toronto. If my memory serves me correctly, he priced himself out of our range and we replaced him with Michael Olowokandi.
  • The 1999 draft was another first. For the first time in my tenure, we had two first round picks. We definitely hit on the first one - Wally Szczerbiak - who made an all-star game appearance, but missed big time on William Avery.
  • Another screw-up I made (Joe Smith), caused us to be stripped of a handful of 1st round picks over the course of the next five years. No first round picks in 2000, 2001, 2002 or 2004.
  • Our 2003 draft wasn't the splash we had hoped for... Ndudi Ebi just didn't get it done. We thought he had the ability to be a contributor, it turns out that I was just taken by a guy who's name was apparently announced "Doo-dee".
  • The next first round pick we had was 2005 and we took Rashad McCants in the middle of the first round. He fit in well with KG, but now we're still trying to find his place. His time is running out.
  • I made my second best pick in 2006 with the selection of Brandon Roy. Unfortunately, I traded him for Randy Foye. Roy has already proved he's an all-star, but if it wasn't for an injury, Foye might be at that level too. This draft also included our best 2nd round pick since Doug West in 1989- Craig Smith.
  • Our last draft produced two winners - Corey Brewer and Chris Richard. They didn't bring the wins with and both struggled as rookies. The jury is still out on both of them.

I think the next order of business is to look at my roster now and see what I have. The ultimate goal is to have a collection of guys that can play well together and win some games. Looking at a team like the Pistons as an example: Their players individually aren't the greatest, but put them together, and they are all all-stars. Would Tayshaun Prince be an all-star with the Wolves? No. Was Chauncey Billups? No. Together, though, that team is pretty good.

THE CURRENT ROSTER:

  • Al Jefferson - Averaged 21 pts and 11 boards. Signed a big contract extention that will have him in a Wolves uniform for the next five years. Has limited offensive game, but the ability to score 21 ppg with limited teammates says something. In the perfect world, we use Big Al at the 4 and build around him.
  • Randy Foye - Averaged 13 pts and 4 asts, but missed half the year with a knee injury. We will more than likely pick up the option for 2009-10, but he will surely be out to prove something next year. Ideally, Foye shows he can play both the 1 or the 2. Realistically though, at 6-3, Foye would have to play point guard. That would not be the ideal situation. I would love to surround him with talent and make him a combo guard off the bench, but he definately has the ability to be a starter.
  • Corey Brewer - Averaged 6 pts and 4 boards. Brewer came into the league with a reputation as a defensive stopper and he didn't completely disappoint. Make no mistake though, he can't play at this league at 6-9, 185. At some point, if he can improve his shot (37% FG, 19% 3s), he could be more than a defensive option off the bench, but he won't be there for a while.
  • Rashad McCants - Averaged 15 pts. Rashad doesn't contribute much besides his scoring. Is there a place for that in this league? Absolutely. But how much does that help a 22-60 team? Not a whole lot. He needs to be content with being a 6th man, one who can come in and fill it up a little... and not pout about it.

Those are 4 guys we know will be back next year. Assuming a 10-man rotation, with 5 role-playing backups, let's see where they fit:

  • PG - Randy Foye (but could move to the 2)
  • SG -
  • SF -
  • PF - Al Jefferson
  • C -
  • Scorer (6th man) - Rashad McCants
  • Back-up PG -
  • Defensive specialist - Corey Brewer
  • Back-up big-man -
  • Back-up big-man -

That doesn't seem to look very good, but it is realistic. Let's look at the rest of the possibilities:

  • Ryan Gomes - Averaged 12 points and 6 boards. Going into the offseason, he's the #1 in-house priority. If we can get him back at a reasonable price, he can be our 3-guy for the forseeable future.
  • Marko Jaric - Averaged 8 pts and 4 asts; Sebastian Telfair - Averaged 9 pts and 6 asts. We're going to have to move one of these guys. They both don't fit in long-term. If we could, we would trade Jaric. He's got a big contract, so he won't be easy to move. Telfair is the type of player that just needs to calm his game down. He would be a valuable back-up to any team, and he'll probably go where the money is. If would could get him reasonably and trade Jaric, Telfair would be a better choice. Either way, we'll keep one and move the other.
  • Craig Smith - Averaged 9 pts and 5 boards. Smith (along with Gomes) is the type of player that can really hamstring a franchise. If we overpay for either of these two, we're dead. Both would be nice to have back, but only at back-up money. If Smith is back, it's as a rotation player off the bench. If he's too spendy, see ya later.
  • Kirk Snyder - Averaged 7 pts and 2 boards. Snyder was a guy that flew nicely under the radar. He played well at times after being traded for Gerald Green. He should get a qualfying offer. If he's back, it will probably be as a rotation-guy. But, ideally, he's an emergency-only guy.
  • Greg Buckner - Averaged 4 pts and 1 ast. Buckner is a good, experienced guy to have around. He won't contribute much on the floor, but he's a guy we'd keep active just in case.
  • Mark Madsen - Averaged 2 boards. Mad-dog could contribute to a good team as a high-energy guy. Too bad there just isn't a spot for one of them on this squad. He'll stick around as the 12th man (again).
  • Chris Richard - Averaged 2 pts and 2 boards. Richard showed enough to get back to camp. Probably won't make the rotation, but could go to the D-League.
  • Antoine Walker - Averaged 8 pts and 4 boards. Walker can still play. It just won't be in Minnesota.
  • Michael Doleac - Averaged 2 pts and 2 boards. Won't be back.

Now look at the 15 man roster:

  • PG - Randy Foye (but could move to the 2)
  • SG -
  • SF - Ryan Gomes (but only at a REASONABLE price)
  • PF - Al Jefferson
  • C -
  • Scorer (6th man) - Rashad McCants
  • Back-up PG - Maric Jaric/Sebastian Telfair
  • Defensive specialist - Corey Brewer
  • Back-up big-man - Craig Smith (but only at a REASONABLE price)
  • Back-up big-man -
  • Player 11 - Greg Buckner, G
  • Player 12 - Mark Madsen, PF
  • Player 13 (Inactive) - Chris Richard, C
  • Player 14 (Inactive) - Kirk Snyder, SG
  • Player 15 (Inactive) -
That leaves some big holes - a true shooting guard, a big guy (either a 4 or 5) who can step out and shoot a little, and another big guy to fill out the rotation. But with a high first round pick, two high picks in the second round, and free agency, there is some reason for optimism. I'm not talking 20-win difference, but 30-32 wins could be reachable.

It's tough to determine before the draft order is set, but this would be my draft board (and let's not hope they drop to 6):
  1. Michael Beasley - would probably start at 3 and bump Gomes to the bench/rotation or to free agency.
  2. Derrick Rose - would start at PG and move Foye to SG.
  3. Brook Lopez - would fit in well with Jefferson, but needs to bulk up.
  4. Jerryd Bayless - would two combo guards work well together in the backcourt?
  5. OJ May0 - would probably start at SG, but is he any better than McCants? Has marketability.
  • The 2nd round picks should yield at least one player that is capable of contributing.
Some Free Agents who could fit in (in no particular order):
  • Chris Duhon, PG, Bulls (Unrestricted)
  • Mickael Pietrus, G/F, Warriors (Unrestricted)
  • DeSagana Diop, C, Nets (Unrestricted)
  • Gilbert Arenas, SG, Wizards (Early Termination Option -- what?!)

It's really early in the off-season to be piecing together a "what-if" roster, but it's worth looking at. There are a lot of holes, but it also looks to be a fairly strong draft and a possibly-loaded free agent class. The playoffs is a stretch, but being competitive again, well, maybe that's less of a stretch.

That was much longer than I intended. We'll get back to the Twins when they start playing again. They open at Oakland tomorrow night, so there probably won't be a Twins post until Wednesday night. Looks like only American Idol tomorrow. Have a good night!

1 comment:

Tim said...

Interesting...

Don't know much about the Wolves, but gives me a little bit of something to know :).

I gotta start thinking of a nice feature I can do :).