Wednesday, June 25, 2008

NBA Draft Preview

The NBA Draft is tomorrow night. The Timberwolves hold the #3 pick. Unfortunately, if used, #3 will only net one player. If the Wolves are able to trade down, they may be able to fill additional holes. The Timberwolves have multiple holes to fill (in no particular order):

- A big man to compliment Al Jefferson. I believe that Jefferson is a true Power Forward (or a 4). An ideal big man would be a true center. I don't know that they exist anymore - and if they do they are extremely rare. The closest thing to a true center is Brook Lopez, Kosta Koufos and Roy Hibbert. Lopez would be a stretch at #3, but would be a possibility later in the lottery. I would view the other two as mid- to late 1st rounders.

-A guard to compliment Randy Foye (and to a lesser extent Rashad McCants). Personally, I think the Wolves need to view Foye as a PG and they need to draft a SG. OJ Mayo fits this mold perfectly, or if the Wolves trade down - Eric Gordon. The toughest part is determining how these guards can match up with the Tracy McGradys of the world.



Because the Timberwolves were so bad last year, the solution isn't nearly as simple as I may have made it sound. They need a lot of help. Here's how I hope it shakes down tomorrow:

At #1 the Bulls take PG Derrick Rose.

At #2 the Heat take F Michael Beasley. They are going to trade him. I think they would like the Wolves to offer #3 and Corey Brewer and/or the pick the Heat owe them. I don't think it will happen. For now, Beasley stays...

At #3 the Wolves take OJ Mayo. Immediately, the will begin working the phones. They will talk to the Heat. They will talk to the Grizzlies and Knicks... and other teams down lower. I don't think there will be any announced trades at this point.

At #4 the Sonics will take the guy they want the most. I just can't determine who they think it is. At this time, I'm leaning towards Arizona PG Jerryd Bayless. Regardless, this pick is the first domino.

At #5 the Grizzlies are going to be trying to move up. They are offering SF Mike Miller and PG Kyle Lowry as incentive. I really think the Heat will take the bait and move down to #5. I don't know who they'll take. If Bayless is available, they go that direction. If not, it's anyone's guess.

At #6 the Knicks will be trying to make a move to get OJ Mayo. The key for the Wolves is that Kevin Love is still on the board. I don't think they like anyone else enough to get rid of Mayo. If Love is on the board, I would be ok if the Wolves made this trade:

OJ Mayo, Marko Jaric ($6.5m) and Greg Buckner ($3.8m) for Kevin Love, F David Lee ($1.8m), 6-6 PG Mardy Collins ($1m), the expiring contract of F Malik Rose ($7.6m) and a draft pick (either a protected 1st next year or something like that).

If the Knicks blink, keep Mayo. I really don't think Mayo is the next Jordan, but I think he'll be a very good player. He will be an all-star and he will sell tickets. I don't feel the same about Kevin Love, but I do think he'll be pretty good.

Other trade partner possibilities:
Clippers at #7: Corey Maggette and Al Thornton would be ok to obtain in a trade.
Bucks at #8: Rumor has it that Charlie Villanueva and Yi are possibly on the move. Michael Redd may also be on his way out - not to Minnesota - so a 3-way is possible.
Bobcats at #9: Adam Morrison has been rumored. That's not going to happen. The Bobcats just did acquire another 1st rounder, so #9, #20 and a player like Jared Dudley and/or Sean May makes sense.
Nets at #10. Mayo seems like a Jay-Z type of guy. The Nets have lots of picks in the bank and guys like Sean Williams, Marcus Williams and Adam Boone are all decent young players.
I could go on like this forever... but I won't.

Either way, we will see what happens tomorrow night.

I'm going to take the night off of making a Twins post. They did win again last night, and they are winning again tonight, so we'll hope it continues...

Have a good night!

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