Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Twins Avoid Sweep

The Twins avoided a sweep by beating the Mariners 7-3 this afternoon.

They get a needed day off tomorrow. The bullpen needs some time to recover.

Three Stars:
Denard Span - 3 for 5, 4 RBI, 3B, SB, game-saving HR-robbery. Without doing any research, I can confidently put this into the "Twins Top 5 Individual Performance of the Year". Offensively, his bases-loaded triple was a game-changer. Defensively, his catch of an Adrian Beltre homerun was a series-changer. It's impossible to put into words what he's done for this team lately.
Brendan Harris - 2 for 4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 2B, BB. Maybe it's fitting to start calling him Brendan "Doubles Machine" Harris. He's got 23 2B this year, but over a quarter of them have come in the last week. I don't know where he'll play in the future, but I'm confident that he'll be on the roster next year. (Two weeks ago I wasn't.)
Randy Ruiz - 2 for 5, 2 R. Although he hasn't shown much (or any) power, he's been effective.

Watching the last three games has been a bit of a downer. It shouldn't happen that a team is in first place, winning a ball game, yet you're watching it and feeling a sense of doom. That happened every game this week. Luckily, Denard Span saved today's game. The reason is mostly the bullpen. Mix that in with some other issues that are coming up and here is what I think will happen:

The first and biggest issue is with the bullpen. Earlier this year, the team went with 13 pitchers. Maybe it wouldn't be a crazy idea to revisit. It also seems like Michael Cuddyer's return will come in the next week and Alexi Casilla's injury isn't as serious as it was first believed.

My steps to fix the problem:
  1. DFA Brian Bass. He would probably clear waivers and remain property of the organization. If he clears he could stay on the 40-man (I think) and pitch at his level in Rochester.
  2. Promote LHRP Ricky Barrett. We've seen what happens when Craig Breslow is the only left-handed option in the bullpen and it isn't pretty. Even though Dennys Reyes is back, I still don't think it would be terrible to have another left-handed arm. Plus, Barrett has been very good this year, except for a week in July.
  3. I like Randy Ruiz. I don't think he's been in the lineup enough to justify him being here. Unfortunately, when Cuddyer comes back, there won't be room for Ruiz. So Ruiz should be sent down to make room for...
  4. The return of Michael Cuddyer. The Twins front office is looking a little silly over the long-term deal they gave Cuddyer in the offseason. I believed at the time it was a very good deal because of the uncertainty of the Twins outfield. But now with Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez and Denard Span - not to mention Jason Kubel - the outfield will be fine. At this point, though, 5 guys for four spots - and you know that Span and Kubel have to play against all right-handers - it leaves one, and possibly two, of the guys on the bench.
  5. You can't let young guys rot on the bench. Young has become a guy that needs to be in the lineup and Span has become everything that Gomez was supposed to be. It won't be popular, but in the best interest of the team, and himself, Carlos Gomez should head to Rochester.
  6. That opens up a spot on the active roster. I mentioned earlier that the Twins wouldn't be crazy to carry 13 pitchers. One of the big names involved in the Santana trade was Philip Humber. He struggled early and was sent to the bullpen. Since his return to the rotation - more out of necessity than earning it - he has been great. 3 starts, 20 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 16 H, 6 BB, 24 Ks. Now, I'm not calling to add him to the rotation. I do think, however, that he could be a great guy for long-relief, and, since he is out of options after this year, this could be a great audition for a job next year. (Even though I'm pretty sure he'll be on the active roster all year.) So let's give Humber a shot in the bullpen.
  7. Alexi Casilla is supposed to get healthy again. I know the popular opinion would be to DFA Adam Everett. But I like the way that Mike Lamb has looked lately and maybe he deserves another shot at 3B. So maybe Brian Buscher could head down to Rochester to make room for Casilla? I'm not 100% on board with that, but at least it's a possibility.

The nice thing with all of these choices is if they don't pan out, they can easily be reversed. (Unless Bass is lost.) I do think that doing these things would add some energy to the team and, besides sending Gomez down, not be too damaging to the egos. When rosters expand on September 1st, I expect guys like Barrett (who'd have to be added to the 40-man), Humber and Matt Macri to all be on the roster. I would just really like to see Gomez gain a little confidence for the stretch run.

In other news - I just stumbled onto the fact that the Twins signed 30th round pick Michael Tonkin. Normally, I don't say much about draft pick signings, but I feel this one can be significant. Tonkin was a highly-regarded high-school senior. (I've seen him ranked 47th in his high-school class). And he was expected to enroll at USC this fall. Generally, highly-ranked high-schoolers that don't seem signable will drop considerably. Teams will take a fliar on them, and they will go unsigned and nothing is lost.

In this case, though, I didn't see it coming. Right after the draft I went through the list of players and marked them as "will sign", "might sign" or "won't sign". So far, only 3 of my 20 "will signs" haven't signed. Of my 19 "might signs", 5 have signed. But of my 13 "won't signs", only Tonkin has signed. (That brings the total to 23 signed draft picks... to my knowledge.) Of course, it probably helped the Twins' case that Michael Tonkin's sister, Blake, is married to DH Jason Kubel. I guess maybe it shouldn't be so shocking...

In other draft-related news, Twins prospect P Shooter Hunt, who entered tonight's game for Beloit with a 0.62 combined ERA, gave up 6 runs (5 earned), 4 hits, 6 walks and only 3 Ks in only 3 1/3 of an inning. Ouch!

Enjoy the day off tomorrow!

5 comments:

Tim said...

I think you've got it, though I don't know if the Twins will follow through with the Gomez idea.

I think it's likely that Buscher will be sent down for Humber and Casilla (unless I missed something) will join come September.

What category did you list Loftus? See the Twins making a pitch to get him to skip college?

Jeremy said...

Joe Loftus fit squarely in the "won't sign" category. I think they'll make a pitch to sign him, but right after the draft he came out and said he was honored to be taken by the hometown team, but fully intended to go to Vanderbilt.

I'm hoping the Twins throw lots of money at him and BJ Hermsen (6th round pick) though I don't see it happening.

Tim said...

Thoughts on Colorado claiming Livan in relation to Loftus (and I guess Hermsen)? Does getting that contract off the books help at all?

Jeremy said...

Doubtful. But maybe. I don't think the Twins will pay much over slot. In the 6th round, that's about $100,000. (The highest 6th round pick sigend for $400,000.) I'd assume it would take closer to (or over) the $400,000.

As for Loftus that's harder to say. MLB doesn't slot after round 10, so there isn't a guide. So I have no guess.

Would $1,666,666 be enough to sign them both? In my opinion, no. But the money is definitely there.

I think in "ideal Twins world" they weren't going to spend anything over anything over $3 million on Livan anyway, so maybe they're not excited as they should be.

Jeremy said...

The Yankees just signed their 6th round pick $850,000. That's not gonna help the Twins.