Twins Roster Projection

A few others have posted their projection (and I'm assuming mine isn't all that different), but last week after the Winter Meetings had concluded I went through their roster and made my assumptions. I've concluded - to myself anyway - that the Twins will start the year with a 12-man pitching staff. Players that I think will be on the 25-man roster are highlighted in red. Players who I think would be the next call-up, if mentioned, are in navy.

First, the fielders:
It's a given that Joe Mauer takes a lion's share of the innings behind the plate, with Mike Redmond being the primary back up. I expect to see Redmond catch more innings and get more AB's. His 129 AB's last year was the least since his rookie season. Mauer proved he could stay healthy, and hopefully will do the same this year. I'm hoping that Mauer will be able to do some DH to preserve his knees. If the Twins to decide to carry a 3rd catcher, which is possible, they will be choosing between Drew Butera and Jose Morales. My assumption is that Butera would be the guy that serves as the emergency catcher because he's a better defensive catcher.

Justin Morneau will play 162 games this year if he can stay healthy and the vast majority will come at 1B. It appears that Alexi Casilla is the starting 2B, although I wouldn't be surprised if he also sees time at SS. Little Nicky Punto was re-signed to be the team's starting SS. Although I think he will see a lot of time there, it appears the Twins are still pursuing others at this position. Punto's versatility allows him to play 2B, SS and 3B, which the Twins value. I anticipate that if the Twins add another SS to the roster that Punto becomes the primary 3B.
Right now it looks as though the Twins will platoon Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher at 3B. I don't think anyone out there views this option as perfect, but with the roster that is assembled, it makes sense. Buscher will see more time there because he is left-handed (he could also spell Morneau at 1B), but I anticipated Harris seeing a lot of time as well. The bench will be held down by UTL guy Matt Tolbert. Tolbert started last season hot before cooling down and getting hurt. He will be on the field when a defensive replacement is needed. There are a few guys on the farm that could see time in 2009: Matt Macri (3B/2B) played well for the little time he was up last year, Luke Hughes (?) has a great stick, but had a bad hammy last year and doesn't have a position, Trevor Plouffe (SS) is younger, but appears to have a decent glove, and Alejandro Machado (SS), although not on the 40-man, could fill a hole ala Howie Clark.

Denard Span showed last season that he is the team's leadoff hitter. I imagine he will split time among all three OF spots. Carlos Gomez might be the best defensive CF in baseball. Hopefully he has accepted the fact that he's going to be a #9 hitter. It appears that Michael Cuddyer is going to be the "everyday" RF. Although I'm not giving up on Delmon Young. Jason Kubel is the team's primary DH, although he can lumber around the OF when necessary. I don't see any one of those five spending long stretches on time on the bench and expect them all to play pretty well when given the chance. Jason Pridie will play CF in Rochester and be an injury away. (I also assume that Punto could play OF in a pinch.)

Now, the pitchers:
The rotation appears set (and young): Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins and Nick Blackburn. I like them in that order because it will prevent hitters from seeing a similar pitcher on consecutive days. The bullpen is when things get hairy. I've allowed for seven guys. It's obvious that Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain will be 3 of those guys. The other four spots are - in my estimation - up in the air.
Let's look at the candidates:
Boof Bonser - Boof brings some power to the table that not every guy possesses. As he has no options left, I hope he can get it under control, because I think he could be very valuable as a long-reliever/spot starter.
Craig Breslow - Breslow pitched well after coming over from the Indians during the season. Another guy who is out of options, he has value as a LHP.
Philip Humber - Humber came over in the Johan trade as a big name. He ran out of options and is making more money because he signed a Major League Contract out of college. He struggled badly early last season - and was moved to the bullpen - before re-emerging as a starter in Rochester and pitching pretty well.
Jose Mijares - Mijares came onto the scene in a big way last year. After missing the first half of the year with an elbow injury, he made the big leap from AA and became the primary setup guy during the playoff run. I'm hoping for a similar output, but expecting a little less. He is also a LHP.
Jason Jones - Came over from the Yankees in the Rule V draft. Big right hander.
Sleepers: Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak and Bobby Korecky.

My best guess: Breslow is safe because he's LH and out of options. Bonser is safe (for now) because he doesn't have the trade value that Humber does.

That leaves two spots: I think that Mijares and Duensing will battle for a left-handed spot. I think Mijares will hold off Duensing, who has primarily been a starter. In the other race, it will come down to Humber and Jones (and maybe Bonser). I think the Twins will try to move Bonser (and fail) before trying to pass Jones through waivers. If he makes it through and the Twins and Yankees can wourk out a trade, Jones will be sent to Rochester. Leaving Humber in the last spot. It wouldn't shock me if the Twins moved Humber, who is under team control for 6 more years (as opposed to Boof entering arbitration after this year and having 3 years plus 09 of control left). I think would like to see both Humber and Boof stick around, even if that means risking losing Jason Jones.

Regardless, the Twins will probably have 11 guys arbitration eligble next year (as opposed to 3 this year). Which will make for more off-season action. Look for the Twins to make some long-term deals in the middle of January with some core guys to avoid arbitration next year. My early guesses: An extention for Joe Mauer (at least 4 more years), a 5-yr deal for Scott Baker and a 3-yr deal for Franciso Liriano. Of course, these deals could be agreed upon already, but keeping with Twins tradition nothing will be announced until TwinsFest, all to drum up a little excitement.